Real Estate Agencies See No Price Drops, Expect Sales Surge

The Idealista Confidence Index has jumped ten points, reaching its highest level since 2018. Despite a 5.9% quarterly decline in sales reported by Registrars, the housing market experienced a 5.8% increase in sales this February, following a year of consecutive declines, according to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE). This decline was largely due to the base effect, as 2022 was one of the best years in the past two decades. Comparisons with 2023 showed significant percentage decreases, although absolute figures were not entirely negative. The sector expected last year’s downturn following the “boom” of 2021 and 2022, but it was not considered dramatic. The market remains strong, as confirmed by real estate agencies in the latest wave of the Idealista sector confidence study. Agencies anticipate a rise in both new listings and sales closures, with most predicting stable prices, according to the Real Estate Sensitivity Survey (ESI) by the real estate marketplace.

The ESI captures agency forecasts for the housing sales and rental markets for Q2 2024. The sales index has risen by over ten points from the previous period, reaching 68, its best score since late 2018. This is the highest quarterly increase since the ESI’s inception in early 2018, surpassing the 9.8-point rise of Q2 2023, as highlighted by Idealista.

This optimism among real estate agencies is largely driven by improved sector activity expectations, with an anticipated increase in property acquisitions and sales over the next three months. Nearly 60% of respondents to Idealista’s survey expect their activity to grow during this period, compared to just 10% who foresee fewer transactions.

Today’s data from the Registrars supports the agencies’ confidence in the market’s strength. From January to March, 151,476 housing transactions were recorded, a 16.6% increase over the previous quarter. These figures break the downward trend of the past three quarters, demonstrating the residential market’s resilience, with only a 5.9% drop compared to the same quarter in 2023, as noted by the Registrars.

Prices Regarding prices, six out of ten surveyed agencies expect them to remain stable. More agencies anticipate a rise (30%) than a decline (7%) in the coming months. The consensus within the real estate sector is that housing prices in Spain will continue to rise in 2024, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years, while sales are expected to stay in line with 2023, with a slight decrease in transactions.

The Registrars’ data over the past twelve months, reflecting a more structural trend, shows that the average price in Q1 reached €1,984 per square meter, an accumulated year-on-year increase of 1.9%.

Rentals In the rental market, agency expectations have slightly improved from the previous quarter, up 1.4 points to 58.2, due to a modest forecasted increase in rental property listings. Nonetheless, more agencies report expecting fewer rental listings and contracts (30%) than those anticipating an improvement (25%) in the coming months. Rental prices remain a major market tension point. The limited supply observed by agencies is driving prices up, with 44% of respondents predicting further increases. Another 40% expect rents to stay the same, while only 5% foresee a decrease in rental prices.


Writen by Patricia Durán | May 23, 2024

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